Factors Affecting the Geographical Distribution of the Bee Moth, Aphomia sociella, Utilizing Species Distribution Modeling Approach

Abstract

The bee moth Aphomia sociella is considered a pest of managed bee colonies. In this study, its current and future potential distribution was modeled using MaxEnt to improve understanding of the climatic factors governing its range. The model performed reliably with area under the curve = 0.809±0.003, showing low omission rates and spatial agreement across replicates. Variable importance analyses identified precipitation of driest quarter (50–250 mm) and annual mean temperature (3–12°C) as the key predictors, suggesting that the species’ distribution is strongly governed by a narrow set of climatic factors. Present-day suitability patterns show a well-defined range in temperate western and central Europe, with suitability decreasing toward the warmer and more arid regions. Future projections under both future shared socio-economic pathway (ssp126 and ssp585) indicate a noticeable shift of suitable habitat toward higher latitudes. Western and central Europe remain highly suitable in these scenarios, while northern and northeastern areas become increasingly favorable. In contrast, southern Europe and nearby arid regions are projected to remain mostly unsuitable. Overall, the findings suggest that A. sociella is likely to move northward and eastward by 2070, with a decline in habitat suitability across its southern range.