Modelling Climate Change Impacts on the Geographic Distribution of a Major Termite Pest, Odontotermes obesus (Rambur, 1842) (Blattodea: Termitidae) in India

Abstract

The mound-building termite, Odontotermes obesus (Rambur) (Blattodea: Termitidae), is recognized as a major agricultural pest, attacking a wide range of cash crops and capable of causing yield losses from 10% to complete crop failure. This study represents the first attempt to model the potential distribution of O. obesus in India using the MaxEnt algorithm with bioclimatic predictors, while also assessing future distributional shifts under climate change. Projections were derived from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for 2050 and 2070. Precipitation-related variables, particularly of the wettest month, warmest quarter, coldest quarter, and driest month, were identified as the most influential drivers of habitat suitability. All models yielded area under curve (AUC) values greater than 0.9, confirming their high discriminatory power and predictive reliability. At present, 48.0% of India’s geographic area is predicted to provide climatically suitable habitat for O. obesus. Future scenarios indicate significant range expansion under high-emission pathways, with intensification in present hotspots and colonization of new regions. Conversely, a substantial contraction in habitat suitability under the low-emission scenario indicates that mitigation of global warming may limit the future expansion of this pest. These findings provide a critical foundation for anticipating climate-driven shifts in O. obesus distribution and underscore the broader implications for pest management, ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and environmental change.