Using Maximum Entropy Algorithm to Analyze Changes in the Distribution of the Stingless Bees, Tetragonisca angustula (Latreille, 1811), in Response to Future Climatic Conditions

Abstract

The stingless bees, Tetragonisca angustula (Latreille, 1811), have a large habitat distribution across Central and South America. These bees are considered beneficial for plant pollination and honey production. This study aims to identify the significant environmental factors affecting the distribution of these bees and the potential effects of future climatic conditions on their distribution. To achieve this objective, the study employed a modeling approach based on MaxEnt, GIS, and DIVA-GIS, using six environmental variables based on temperature and precipitation, and two future climate models for 2050: The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM2-MR) and model Earth System Model2 (CMCC-ESM2). The model’s performance was high, as the area under the curve was 0.965±0.003, and the true skill statistic was 0.64, indicating the accuracy of the outputs. The results revealed a high restriction of these bees to their native distribution and the suitability of some regions outside their native range. The study found annual precipitation to be highly important for T. angustula and suggests a limited potential invasion to other regions in the near future.